I watched a short TED talk today by Ian Goldin who was talking about many of the global trends that threaten and brighten our future. It's a good talk.
http://www.ted.com/talks/ian_goldin_navigating_our_global_future.html
Goldin did present a concept that resonated with me instantly. He described the emerging complex systems we all rely on to survive as displaying "brittleness."
Our power grid came immediately to mind. From apocalyptic TV shows to the reality of cascading power failures, we are afraid of the single point of failure or the system so interconnected that the innocuous becomes the end of the world.
The global food system has been on my mind lately. We've been very fortunate for the last 50 years in the US. One prediction coming from climate change researchers is that weather patterns are likely to become more exaggerated and food production more brittle.
Of course, a farmer I knew a long time ago said after a week of steady rain had ruined his hay crop, "I've farmed here for 50 years and I haven't had a normal summer yet!"
The systems we take for granted are fragile. If you're part of the 1% in my last blog post, you might not care. If you're in the bottom 30%, you surely will.
Income inequality is, to a writer in a recent Forbes magazine, evidence that everything is well with the economy and the incentive to gain wealth the reward. But the price of going too far is brittleness in our society, our politics, and in our communities. I can't see how anyone can look at world history and fail to see that fact.
Somebody might ask a question like the one the peasant asked King Arthur in Monty Python's quest for the Holy Grail. "So, who made you king then, eh?"
Another pundit, I forget who, characterized disaster planning in the United States as "Blah, blah, blah, blah, BOOM!
I agree that systems, especially complex integrated systems, are brittle. People, however, are anything but.
Addison Steele
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